Vietnam targets average GDP per capita US$ 2,100 by 2015

By on January 5, 2010 • Topics: Business & Tech,Current Affairs

1.04.09 – By contributing author: Hang Nguyen earned her Master of Science degree in International Human Resources Management from the University of East Anglia, UK.  Hang’s longtime interest has been in the languages where she’s worked as an English teacher at Hanoi University and translator for various books.

According to Vietnamnet, the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) have targeted the average GDP per capita by 2015 will reach US$ 2,100, 1.7 times higher than in 2010.

This is one of the important targets in the Draft five-year plan for socio-economic development from 2011 to 2015, announced by MPI on November 23.

At present, the average GDP per capita of Vietnam is US$1,200. If Vietnam exceeds the target in 2010, the country will get out of the group of low income countries and join the average income countries group.

In the next five years, MPI expect Vietnam’s GDP to increase by 7-8% yearly. Therefore, by 2010, GDP scale will reach approximately 200 billion USD (according to the current foreign exchange rate).

In GDP structure of 2015, agriculture, forestry and aquiculture sectors will account for 18-19%, industry and construction 40-41%, and services sector 40-41%. Labor productivity aims to boost 1.5 times in comparison with 2010.

longan.gov.vn

The rising speed of the overall export turnover averages 12% per year. By 2015, export turnover reaches US$ 1,260, or 1.4 times higher than in 2010. Excessive imports will be controlled at the allowed limit.

Capital mobilization to state budget could gain averagely 23-24% of GDP. The percentage for five year development investment will steady at 40-41% of GDP.

In the consulting session to have more ideas on the draft, vice-minister of MPI, Mr. Cao Viet Sinh emphasized that developing human capital, modernizing infrastructure and accelerating administration reform are three key breakthroughs in the Socio-economic development plan from 2011 to 2015.

Mr. Nguyen Anh Tuan, Vice President of Economic Development Institute, Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry remarked that when Vietnam economy is more open to the world and still much reliable on exports in the near future, MPI should have more analyses on the worst possible scenarios.

Meanwhile, representatives from different provinces required MPI should clearly analyze unachieved targets during 2006-2010 period on infrastructure, investment effectiveness, etc.

Mr. Cao Viet Sinh said that the Draft Plan needs more contributory ideas from other ministries, provinces, and enterprises before being placed to the report to be submitted to the 11th National Party Congress in January 2011.

It seems to be a good scenario for Vietnam. However, skyrocketing gold price, increasing fuel and gasoline, weaker US Dollar, inflation, growing population, natural disasters, and inequality in the income between the rich and the poor are all reasons that could make the figure of average GDP per capita provide false information. The calculation should be made to serve for the serious purpose of increasing people living standards and socio-economic development plans, not just to boast to people and to the world about the ‘magic’ development in the next five years while it is not.

What are your thoughts, everyone?

Check out this video on the projected top 20 economies in 2050:

The Author: Brian Luong

Brian Luong is the editor-in-chief of Vietnam Talking Points. Brian is currently pursuing a DMD-MBA joint degree program at Harvard School of Dental Medicine and Harvard Business School in Boston, Massachusetts. Extended Bio.

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  • http://facebook.com/profile.php?id=617736644 David Regenold

    Good article. What is the link to the video referred to at the end ("Check out this video on the projected top 20 economies in 2050")? I don't see one.

  • http://facebook.com/profile.php?id=6001419 Brian Luong

    David, please check out the original article at talk.onevietnam.org:)

  • http://facebook.com/profile.php?id=617736644 David Regenold

    Got it. Thanks!

  • Facts Not Propaganda

    Data below from CIA 2009 Fact Book. Averages for three communist SE Asia countries -Viet Nam, Laos, Cambodia- compared with same categories for non-communist four SE Asia neighbors: Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines. All data, from various sources(World Bank, U.N., etc.) from 2002-2008 period. Data a straight average, unweighted for population. Laos and Cambodia must be included as Hanoi has long had almost domineering influence in both countries, dragging both in Hanoi’s war and subjecting both to variants of Hanoi’s economic Marxist shamanism.

    Communist Three Non-Communist Four

    Per Capita Income* $2,167.00 $7,075.00

    Infant Mortality** 53.27 21.78

    Life Expectancy 63.1 Years 71.8 Years

    % of Population
    Below Poverty Line 26.8 15.7

    * Purchasing Power Parity Method
    ** Per 1,000 Live Births

    Nothing new here. In 2005 Hanoi economist Le Dang Doanh cited corruption and single-party control as a reason for Viet Nam’s lowly economic status. He cited comparative data showing Viet Nam has regressed in relation to, for example, Thailand and So. Korea:

    Viet Nam’s Per Capita Income as Percentage of

    1950 1999

    Thailand 80.5 20.0

    So. Korea 85.5 11.0

    From:

    http://www.fva.org/2005/03Mar/story02.htm

    This, after 24 years of ‘peace.’ Hanoi is now,, sort of, ‘catching up.’ It’s most recent per capita income of $2,600.00 is 32.9% of Thailand’s $7,900.00, meaning at present rates and levels Viet Nam’s per capita income will equal Thailand’s in another 55-60 years, or 90-100 years after ‘the war ended’ in 1975.

    Bears mention that Hanoi ranks 166th out of 175 countries, surveyed in 2009, measuring press freedom …or lack thereof:

    http://www.fva.org/2005/03Mar/story02.htm

    Average ranking and overall index score (higher the number, the less press freedom/greater oppression) of the communist three and non-communist four:

    Communist 3 Non-Communist 4

    Place 151 121

    Index Score 69.6 38.76

    This information involved search time of perhaps 45 minutes, something a ‘reporter’ could easily do. Question is, why don’t they do it? Their brethren journalists are being hammered after all.

    As this is written retired NVA officer Tran Anh Kim is beginning his 5 1/2 year prison sentence for involvement in pro-democracy activities. He joins Le Thi Cong Nhan, Nguyen Van Dai, Fr. Nguyen Van Ly, scores of Montagnards, and many others jailed for ‘subversion’ and Orwellian ‘anti-state plots.’ Others, including attorney Le Cong Dinh, scheduled for trial on similar charges later this month.
    In the meantime, Sec. State Hillary Clinton recently lauded U.S. ten-fold increase in trade with Viet Nam in past decade, neglecting to mention huge U.S. current account trade deficit with Viet Nam, meaning Hanoi benefits in terms of jobs more than does U.S.

  • Facts Not Propaganda

    I remembered back in 2000 when the Vietnam government announced it will become a developed country by 2020. Even if meeting the goal for 2015 with a GDP per capita of $2100 and double that by 2020. $4200 per capita is not a number for that a developed country would have.

    The tunnel in the Youtube video, half of the time is blocked and not usuable because of flooding. All these infrastructures are foreign built and foreign owned. The nice houses in Q2 and Q4 (showned in the video) are owned by Viet Kieu and foreigners. What average Vietnamese can afford those ?

    Don’t feed into the lies and propaganda. Look at the FACTS!

    The forecast for 2009 was 6.5% GDP growth. It is not going to meet that number. Growth is going to be around 4.2% year over year. The number also leaves out $8-9 billion dollars in remittances from Viet Kieu. Just another year of missing forecast again and tricking gullible Viet Kieu and foreign investors to pump into the communist cronyism and corrupt system.

  • http://facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000636942153 Tudo Daiviet

    I understand many of you are educated Ivy Leaguers with the best of intentions but please present more point of views than the propagandistic hoopla from the Vietnamese gov't.And no Vietnam is not the second fastest growing economy in Asia as the video suggest but India is. Check the numbers. India is 9-10% growth in the race against China and will continue to attract even more FDI in the future that Vietnam is having a tough time competing for.The tunnel in the Youtube video, half of the time is blocked and not usuable because of flooding. All these infrastructures are foreign built and foreign owned. The nice houses in Q2 and Q4 (showned in the video) are owned by Viet Kieu, foreigners, or bureaucratic gov't officials. What average Vietnamese can afford those ?The target for 2009 was 6.5% GDP growth. It is not going to meet that number. Growth is going to be around 5% year over year. The number also leaves out $8-9 billion dollars in remittances from Viet Kieu. Just another year of missing target again and tricking gullible Viet Kieu and foreign investors to pump into the communist cronyism and corrupt system.Again from Professor Le: "The indictment that what will hold back Vietnam is politics and not know-how has been highlighted by a report by Harvard Vietnam Program. The report’s verdict published in January 2008 was that for Vietnam “success is a choice” but in practice it was “no different from a soccer coach who starts his weakest players in the championship match. Until that changes Vietnam will continue to experience growing pains. "

  • http://facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000636942153 Tudo Daiviet

    I understand many of you are educated Ivy Leaguers with the best of intentions but please present more point of views than the propagandistic hoopla from the Vietnamese gov't.And no Vietnam is not the second fastest growing economy in Asia as the video suggest but India is. Check the numbers. India is 9-10% growth in the race against China and will continue to attract even more FDI in the future that Vietnam is having a tough time competing for.The tunnel in the Youtube video, half of the time is blocked and not usuable because of flooding. All these infrastructures are foreign built and foreign owned. The nice houses in Q2 and Q4 (showned in the video) are owned by Viet Kieu, foreigners, or bureaucratic gov't officials. What average Vietnamese can afford those ?The target for 2009 was 6.5% GDP growth. It is not going to meet that number. Growth is going to be around 5% year over year. The number also leaves out $8-9 billion dollars in remittances from Viet Kieu. Just another year of missing target again and tricking gullible Viet Kieu and foreign investors to pump into the communist cronyism and corrupt system.Again from Professor Le: "The indictment that what will hold back Vietnam is politics and not know-how has been highlighted by a report by Harvard Vietnam Program. The report’s verdict published in January 2008 was that for Vietnam “success is a choice” but in practice it was “no different from a soccer coach who starts his weakest players in the championship match. Until that changes Vietnam will continue to experience growing pains. "

  • nhan

    hey guys it all going to be a really time for vietnam check this video out in youtube.com
    vietnam skyline 2010 part 2!!!!!! you see !!