A resolution regarding the implementation of the nuclear power project in Ninh Thuan was passed by the National Assembly on November 25, 2009. Other big projects to be implemented in Vietnam include Metro Hochiminh, Long Thanh airport, Van Phong container port, expressway projects, high speed railroad, and a telecommunication technology development project. All these projects are set for the next 10-15 years.

The project will cost around US$12 billion including two plants with a combined production capacity of 4,000 MW. The implementation schedule is from 2014 to 2020.

According to the Minister of Trade and Industry, Mr. Vu Huy Hoang, nuclear power is a ‘suitable choice’ for Vietnam, as coal resources are nearly exhausted, oil fields are running out, and alternative energy has not been discovered.

The questions here are whether borrowing foreign money could put Vietnam in a deeper debt trap and whether Vietnam has enough capacity in both skilled and experienced manpower, stable input (uranium), and technology.

As for the bigger foreign debts that Vietnam is going to face, the project will cost half of the national Forex reserves, currently about US$22.9 billion (World Bank, 2009), although US$ 12 billion is surely not the final number. Some MPs are concerned that all the important national projects in recent times have exceeded the primary estimated number. That is not to mention the price slippage on the market regarding equipment, technology, and inputs.

Take Dung Quat oil refinery as an example. Initially the estimate total investment was US$1.5 billion with the implementation schedule from 1997-2001. However, it wasn’t until late 2009 that the completed refinery will be handed over, with total real expense of US$3.054 billion, two times higher than the initial estimate.

Currently, Vietnam’s foreign debts make up 30-33% of GDP. In 2009, it is estimated that external debt of Vietnam is approximately US$29 billion, which accounts for 30.9% of GDP in 2009 (World Bank, 2009). Supposing the growth of Vietnam’s economy stabilizes at 7.2% yearly, 2025 GDP of Vietnam is estimated at US$300 billion. Add 75% – 85% external capital for Ninh Thuan nulear project, and by that year, the total cost could be already up to US$40 billion, totalin’g about at least US$30 billion of foreign debts. It could also mean that Vietnam’s foreign debts will be more than 40-50% of GDP in future. Combining with other major awaiting projects, this ratio could surpass 50-55%. If this is the case, Vietnam would be in a dangerous situation.

Other significant concerns are about skilled and experienced  manpower, technology and inputs for the project. First, there will be a huge demand of at least 2,500 qualified nuclear engineers whilst Vietnam currently has 500 nuclear engineers, and roughly 100 engineers are being trained every year. This is excluding the number of qualified people with knowledge of law, regulations, and management regarding nuclear power that will be needed. Secondly, the fuel for plants is expensive. According to MP Nguyen Minh Thuyet from Lang Son Province, when starting the plants, US$900 million will be spent on uranium. After that, every 18 months, US$320 million will be spent to replace spent uranium.

Finally, the stability and price of uranium input and the concern that the  global uranium reserve will be exhausted is another risk that should be considered. It will be definitely dangerous to rely on foreign resources as uranium ores in the world are being used up.

Others argue that the expense for the nuclear project is much more wasteful and expensive in comparison with investing to recycled energy development.

Given these details, what do you think? Please comment below

Works Cited

World Bank . (2009, November). siteresources.worldbank.org. Retrieved from http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTEAPHALFYEARLYUPDATE/Resources/550192-1257239343493/update_nov09_countries_vn.pdf