Khanh sits and ponders. A slim girl with straight black hair and a fair complexion, she came to Saigon from Da Lat a few years back – right out of college. She came at a time when the economy was in a much better shape. With her degree in Computer Science, Khanh landed a job with decent pay from a software company. For Khanh and her peers, opportunities were everywhere. Then the economy crashed.
Chatting with Khanh, I notice that she represents a large segment of Vietnamese: young and educated, this group was born after the war and had the opportunity to enjoy the rapid growth of Vietnam in recent years. Now they are all facing the challenges of a broken global economy. Khanh understands the effect of this crisis well, “The current economy is pretty horrible. There are many companies losing money, leading to bankruptcy, leading to unemployment, it’s a domino effect. I think the economy is slowly improving for the major economies like the US and Japan, as for smaller countries (like Vietnam) things might take a lot longer …”
Economists seem to agree that it will take some time for Vietnam economy to improve. Recent analysis note that the value of exports (one of Vietnam’s main industries) will fall in 2009 due to the shrinking market abroad. Also, disposable income per head will take a fall before recovering in 2011.
When asked about the mood of her peers, Khanh notes that it all depends on where one works. “Right now, I’m working for a foreign company. Although they are cutting back too, they don’t do it as much as domestic companies. With foreign companies, you definitely have to work harder and compete more but they have a system in place. You have more say and a better learning opportunity. ” Her old company, a domestic outsource site for foreign companies, is struggling since many of its customers are facing financial troubles of their own. Being a part of a foreign company seems to give one a better chance to survive this economic downturn.
Although there are signs of recovery, Khanh is not overly optimistic. “Vietnam economy is in an interesting place right now” she said, “While the market is becoming more capitalistic, government involvement is still very high. Currently, they are trying to govern investments, oil prices, as well as the prices of steel and other construction materials, etc. Still experts predict slower growth for the Vietnam economy, 2.1% for this year and 4.9% for next.”
“I know the Vietnamese economy is getting better but it is hard to be fully optimistic with the current situation. Just look at how the Vietnamese currency is doing in comparison to other currencies,” Khanh notes as we conclude our meeting.
My conversations with Khanh and others like her revealed a peek into the maturing of the young Vietnamese generation that has just entered the workforce. They are becoming more aware of how fleeting opportunities and wealth can be. At the same time, there is still an undercurrent of optimism that things will eventually be alright.
Hopefully sooner than later!