Vietnam has publically announced that it will conduct six hours of live-fire naval exercises off the country’s central coast this coming Monday. While conducting naval exercises is not entirely uncommon, this was the first instance publicized. The state-owned Northern Maritime Safety Corporation warned boats and ships to stay out of the area off Quang Nam’s provinces shores.
The planned exercises are largely believed to be a response to ongoing disputes over territory in the South China Sea (officially known as “Bien Dong,” the East Sea, in Vietnam). While Vietnam asserts that China has consciously interfered with Vietnamese efforts to survey the purportedly resource rich area, China accuses Vietnam of infringing on its sovereignty.
Competing claims with China over ownership of the Spratly and Paracel Islands (Truong Sa and Hoang Sa) have been both a domestic and foreign relations issue for Vietnam. Heated sentiments over a perceived timidness to Vietnam’s northern neighbor inspired pockets of protests in Ha Noi earlier this week, and diplomatic spars with China have followed. Hackers from both countries have compromised the other’s government-run websites.
How far do you think this issue will go? How will it be resolved?
References: BBC | NPR | NYT | Bangkok Post
Image via BBC
A little context, since I used to watch these kinds of things for a living as a USAF intelligence officer specializing in Asia-Pacific affairs:
1) This is unlikely to evolve into a shooting war, despite what you may read in NYT. Too much is at stake economically. There will be a fierce shouting match/cyber war—an unintended byproduct of Beijing and Hanoi trying to replace their ideology w/ nationalism. Yet despite the passionate public outrage, Beijing and Hanoi are cool, calculating, and have their foreign policy under control. The irony of dictatorship, is that you can afford to think very long-term in your foreign policy (rather than answer to the short-sightedness of the masses).
2) PAVN (Vietnam’s military) is hopelessly outmatched against the PLA, which has been modernizing for the last 20 yrs. In the remote event of a military confrontation w/ China, VN has no chance unless it has an alliance w/ ASEAN and/or Japan and/or the US. ASEAN is even more subservient to Beijing than Hanoi is. Japan is bound by their Constitution to be a defensive force only. Hanoi and Washington mil-mil ties are blossoming, but it has a very, very long way to go. Beyond just being BFF, nations must train for years to be a cohesive coalition (i.e. NATO, South Korea, Japan).
3) Forget VC running in the jungle–PLA has the firepower to crush PAVN, though it has no appetite or ability to occupy VN (as it has learned in the last 1000 yrs, that outright occupation is not worth it). China wants to be the king of their backyard (instead of the US)—but that doesn’t mean it wants to take over Asia (except Taiwan).
In the end, I think we all believe that despite our differences, we believe that China is acting like a petulant bully (over a bunch of rocks, whose fossil fuel wealth has not been independently confirmed). As a friend said, “Don’t mess w/ the Viets, yo!”